The Resistance Rises: "We're the One's We Have Been Waiting for!" The Electorate Strikes Back!

Truly a seminal historic election, comparable to 1800, 1864, and 1940. Historic in the nature that the voters are the story, not the candidates, as in 1828, 1864, 1932, and 1960. Democrats which I am a part, former county, and state party official, still a party precinct committeeperson, an experienced campaign volunteer leader to previous presidential elections, a volunteer of nine presidential campaigns including 2020 working in voter protection. From 2006 through 2012 Colorado went from a long-standing traditional red state, first to purple, and now a strong shade of blue. We’ll be deep blue when Cory Gardner is sent packing. I know battleground states living in both Wisconsin and here in Colorado.

The transition in Colorado from a century-long red state to a recent blue state has occurred over the last fifteen years as more than 1.6 million people moved to the Centennial State. Fundamentally changing the voter demographics as more college-educated, under 40 years old and Hispanics have changed the electoral profile. This demographic shift has been happening all over the country. The point---Democrats I have first-hand knowledge of elections and this election is so different than all others put together. My sentiment is similar to Nate Silver:

What I am excited about is that finally “We’re the Ones’ that we have been waiting for.”* Americans are showing up greater than droves, almost biblical in scale. To date, on this Sunday morning before the election, 93.333 million votes have been cast, compared to 47.7 million in 2016, a 95.6% increase. Secretary of State’s across America are now planning that America’s vote will exceed 160 million votes returning to another era’s turnout of voter age-eligible numbers of over 60% from this era’s 55%. To my white Evangelical and white Catholic friends General Blumentritt might have echoed your words;

* Barack Obama April 2016

Maybe to my deeply religious friends and family, God is on the side of Americans coming out of the woodwork giving voice to one person-one vote and not those in the minority imposing their immoral will onto others, just a righteous thought.

So my Democratic-leaning friends, relax, I have never seen such ground-level volunteer action. Not here, not Wisconsin, not Illinois or Indiana ever. I witnessed my three sister-in-laws's write hundreds of postcards to infrequent Democratic-leaning voters in Georgia, Florida, and Arizona. In my precinct, a neighborhood settled in the last turn of the century, residents of a mix of college-educated young professional families moving in, remaining white empty nester’s, more diverse than most of Colorado Springs, a solid Democratic-leaning precinct of 1470 voters. It is the home of the Olympic-Training Center, the central Memorial Hospital, where Unaffiliated voters comprise 42% of the registered voters, Democrats 35% while Republicans bring up the rear with 21%. It is almost a flip of El Paso County ratio of UFA, to Republicans to Democrats. 

Yet registered Democrats have an 84% turnout as of yesterday, 65% for Republicans and 60% for Unaffiliated’s. Historically the precinct votes around 60% Democratic, with a turnout running at the state average of 70% of all registered voters. With three days for voters to turn in their mail-in ballots or vote in person, our turnout is 64% of all registered voters. In 2016 Colorado received over 840,000 ballots in the final dash to election day or 30% of the total. If that ratio continues Colorado will record 3.4 million votes, roughly a 28% increase, Colorado now is experiencing a 35% increase in ballots cast to 2016. 3.4 million votes would equate to 83% on all registrations.  

Each era in America comes together there are moments and events that define generations, where people who are strangers come together and transform themselves from ordinary and usual to nobly join a crusade to forge a new change something greater than themselves. When this happens, when masses are awoken and unite, moments in history suddenly arrive, rising up to conquer, vanquish, defeat and humiliate the threats to America’s freedom and build a new society addressing the challenges of their age. Walking back through history, when my 93-year-old father was 17 and in high school, he read in the newspaper like the rest of America, General Eisenhower’s message to the pre-dawn D-Day forces:

Soldiers, Sailors, and Airmen of the Allied Expedentiary Force! You are about to embark on a Great Crusade toward which we have striven these many months. The eyes of the world are upon you. The hope and prayers of liberty-loving people everywhere march with you. In company with our brave Allies and brothers-in-arms on other Fronts, you will bring about the destruction of the German war machine, the elimination of Nazi tyranny over the oppressed peoples of Europe, and security for ourselves in a free world. 

That was the last time this nation faced an existential threat to our America when brave men and a few women invaded the evil empire of Germany. It was not easy or foregone but in reality, the level of preparation, the amount of personal drive by individuals, the sacrifice of personal nature overcame the obstacles. These past weeks we have witnessed the same as Americans have come out to vote, some by mail others in long lines where the entrenched Republican powers that be an attempt to obstruct democracy overturning their government of corruption, tyranny, negligence, malfeasance, and even alleged treason. This is democracy reclaiming its own government. The ultimate power of political legitimacy. 

The Preamble of our Constitution:

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.

 

Whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these rights, it is the right of those who suffer from it to refuse allegiance to it, and to insist upon the institution of a new government, laying its foundation on such principles, and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness.

So here on the eve of Election Day 2020. The Resistance which I was a part in 2016 attempting to disrupt the Electoral College as a Hamilton Elector is now at the polls Now we find our ourselves in history again at the same turning point as Eisenhower commanding the order to invade. Trump’s authoritarian government is the same grave threat America faced during the Civil War, the War of 1812, and its War for Independence. Each time Americans have risen to meet those threats like World War II.

Our resistance has created its own seminal shift. There are rallying cries for racial justice across all racial lines, the turnouts voting despite all-day lines in places like Georgia, Texas, Florida, Arizona, the overcoming of the US Postal Service manipulation. Stand tall America, “you are the one’s we’ve been waiting for!”, as we shall overcome all the tyrannous efforts by this Republican rogue government.  So over the next two days, 70 million of you go out and vote, the eyes of the world are upon you!

Standing on the precipice of a new American Political Era---The Seventh Party System! UPDATE

This nation is fast approaching a generational change election! I am not supposed to be getting ahead of myself as in “don’t count your chickens before they hatch”, as I am a Math guy but the trends appear unmistakable. That timeless cliche now a relic of the past when many households, even in cities, had chickens, like saying a Category 5 hurricane is approaching the Gulf Coast but wait it might turn and go out to the Atlantic. This is a political 100 year-storm and is becoming obvious each day as we approach November 3rd. Forces appear to be converging towards a generational climax. You can feel it every waking hour and possibly when you are also sleeping. Anxieties have frayed the nerves of families, neighbors, and most thankfully, politicians, Democratic and especially conservatives but most of all Republicans and those secret groups of dark money.

Washington Post

Indeed, Michael McDonald, who runs the United States Elections Project, estimates that we could be up to as many as 58 million people [updated] have voted by the end of this week.

“This is a completely different election than anything we’ve seen in the past,” McDonald told me. “The numbers are off the charts.” The great majority of early votes have been by mail, McDonald noted.

The upcoming election is a true determinate election, much like 1860, 1896, 1932, and 1968. Each of those historical elections America redefined the political landscape and our nation. Each time the electorate stunned the entrenched out of touch political establishment, which is what functional democracies are designed to do, even in the face of great suppression and obstacles. Fundamental political change happens with a crescendo that not even Beethoven could compose, it is a societal climax.  

The last determinate election was in 1968 when as a 5th grader I witnessed Nixon run on a campaign theme of “Law & Order”, a message invoking the electorate’s reaction to the exploding civil strife occurring in the nation’s streets and neighborhoods. He won a narrow victory over a fracturing long-standing Democratic coalition. Although when you add up George Wallace’s 3rd Party vote along with Nixon’s it was trouncing 55% for the reactionary conservative side. Nixon’s election despite his Watergate scandal proved to be determinate unlike Eisenhower’s a decade earlier because it was preceding a new Sixth Party System established by Reagan’s election in 1980. The 6th Party system did away with a one-party rule for the sake of divided government, which except for brief periods has held true to now. Known among political scientists as generational party systems, the 6th Party System, held that a divided government between the Presidency and the Congress, and even within the Congress was preferred in retrospect by the voters. It is what most Americans have lived under and only know for over fifty years and unless you were born before 1950 and cognizant of the FDR-New Deal era what you might believe is the norm.

As this election nears less than twenty days out, the electoral and campaign trends are obvious: President Trump is in stormy political waters approaching a rocky shoreline, his engines are malfunctioning and he has lost his mast. Only three other modern incumbent presidential administrations, Herbert Walker Bush, Jimmy Carter, and Herbert Hoover, (Gerald Ford excluded) and they all lost badly. In 1980, some forty years ago when I was a naive senior in college; Carter was polling at 44% as Reagan surged in October before election day. Carter it was concluded had a failed presidency because of the Iran Crisis. In that election Reagan won with 50.7% to 41% as a third party candidate, Congressman Anderson collected 6% of the vote. Also in that election, only 53% of the electorate turned out, a drop of 1% in percentage even though there were 10 million more eligible voters.

More devastating to Carter and the Democrats was Reagan’s Electoral College score of 489 to 49. It was the second Electoral College trouncing in eight years as Nixon in his reelection bid of 1972 trounced McGovern, 520-17. Subsequently, Reagan would win reelection again trouncing the Democrats 520-17. Yet the government still remained divided as the Democrats held onto a majority in the House of Representatives. This political structure defined the Sixth Party System which we have been living under as the divided government period.

More telling is that 1980 buried into the political graveyard the Fifth Party System that ruled the national political structure from 1932 to 1966 as the Republicans took over the majority in the Senate. In 1980 they flipped unexpectedly 12 seats gaining their first majority in the Senate chamber since 1954. The Republicans have held the majority 12 out of the last 20 Senate sessions. In the House, each party has held the majority 10 out of the last 20 sessions. While the Republicans held the Presidency 6 of 10 Presidential terms. The split government-defined with the Republican Party holding a slim advantage.

Looking back to 1932, the nation was embroiled in the continued spiral of an economic and societal decline, known as the Great Depression. This dominated every aspect of daily and political life for Americans as well as the rest of the World’s Industrial society. A quarter of Americans, mostly single male breadwinners were unemployed. Wholesale foreclosures occurred on farms. There were systemic bank failures, as whole industries shuttered. Europe was beginning its descent towards World War II as authoritarian fascist regimes rose to power in Italy, Germany, and Spain. The consecutive period of a historic economic calamity led to a world war that was fought on four continents. This era defined two generations that included my grandparents and parents. My father, his older brother, and father-in-law are one of an estimated 2 million-plus Americans still living who are over the age of 90 who can recall living through this period as they grew up into adulthood.

Now in 2020, the trend lines are now becoming unmistakable with record early voting reporting that over 21 million voters who have cast a ballot three weeks before election day, estimated to represent almost 15% of the 2016 turnout, which was 138 million. This weekend it is 59 million, 42.36% of 2016's entire turnout with ten days before November 3rd. 

More important is what appears to be new voting patterns reflecting continued changing demographics of the electorate in once-stable states who have voted solid Republican are showing changes.  Overall there are now more independent/unaffiliated voters, who are younger, more female, growing percentages of racial/ethnic minorities, the two fastest-growing groups are Latino-Hispanic and Asian-Americans, and they are more educated. The Federal National Register estimates that the 2020 population over 18 years old is 255 million, an increase of 5 million from 2016. More impactful is that it is now being projected that turnout will approach or exceed 60% were in 21 Century average turnout was about 55% wherein 2008 it spiked to 57%. A turnout of 60% would translate in 15 million more votes. Now a few weeks later from those projections new projections are stating that over 90 million will vote early and possibly the U.S. will witness a turnout exceeding 62.5%, of age-eligible voters; the high watermark in the 20th Century; 1912.

 James Carville in the Bulwark a week ago:  

So I see a light ahead. Just days away, a unified and electrified coalition of Americans, coming together like our country did in World War II, standing united to send a message that will be heard around the world to all those who look with expectant hope to the America that led the crusade more than half a century ago: That America has not succumbed to a demagogue and would-be autocrat. That we have overcome. And that Donald J. Trump is not who we are.

In just a short time, America will go from its darkest hour to its finest hour.

Historically, when demographics fundamentally change over a generation so does the Party System. In 1980 the demographics shifted where moderate white suburban voters grew large enough to overtake the urban-city vote. First characterized as “white flight” of the ’60s and ’70s, suburban voters joined with the rural and Southern/Sun Belt voters to propel the Republican Party into power with its neo-conservatism dominating national politics from the ’80s into the ’00s. Much of the suburban demographic consisted of Baby Boomers, then Gen X’ers who are now aging. Boomers are presently between the ages of 74 and 56 half are considered seniors. In fact, more than half of the nation’s total population are now members of the millennial generation or younger. Combined with millennials, Gen Z’ers, and younger numbers over 166 million as of July 2019, 50.7% of the population—larger than 162 million Americans associated with the combined Gen X, Boomers, and the older cohorts born before 1946. It will be interesting to see the new age voter turnout joining with part of the Boomer progressive-Democratic vote making it a juggernaut of a political force.  Below is a pie graph illustrating the new age demographic of the United States. 

This will be the first election poll where voting will be dominated by generations younger than 40, since 1980 when a similar breakout emerged ushering in the Reagan Revolution. Unlike 1980 when 88% of the electorate was white, the voting demographic measured in 2018 was 66% white wherein 2020 in all likelihood, will fall further and be closer to 60%. The American electorate is fast moving away from a largely white majority, where the baby-boomer-dominated political landscape and its culture is morphing into a more racially diverse country fueled by a new younger generation: This is not new in the American Experience as governing demographics have coincided with previous changes in the Party Systems.

In 1932, when a new urban demographic ushered in the one-party rule known as the New Deal, propelled by a huge migration of young and middle-aged displaced voters out from farm country into the cities. America had transformed into a modern industrial consumer-based economy from its agrarian small-town economic roots. The tipping point came about when the second generation of European immigrants who came at the turn of the century moved into major cities and became part of the electorate at the same time being displaced by the ravages of the Great Depression.

Thirty-six years earlier in 1896, as small-town America was growing, that sea-change was fueled by the explosive economic engine of a new middle class, especially throughout the northern Midwest changing the demographics from the previous post Civil War Reconstruction era. This era also experienced a one-party rule fueling the laissez-faire economic system that eventually collapsed in 1929. In 1854, as Irish and northern European immigrants came in waves pioneering fertile farmlands and again a developing small town mercantile industry that challenged the economics Slave-States. Finally, in 1828, the new frontier of the Western state's expansion into the Ohio & Mississippi Valleys proved to be a changing demographics overtaking the one-party rule of the Eastern Seaboard Jeffersonian Democrats. The ingredients are all the same, society grows and changes, soon forcing a fundamental political change because the previous system is unwilling and unable to address the needs of a society necessitating a new vision and power structure to address its welfare. Below is a brief summary of the previous Party Systems. Ultimately a new expansive group of voters come into play and vote for change. Below is a capsule summary of the six previous party systems.

• 1968 to present the Sixth Party System (Divided government characterized as Democrats bi-coastal & urban centers vs Republicans southern, Sun-Belt and rural where battlegrounds were moderate suburbs.)l

• 1932 to 1968 the Fifth Party System (New Deal redistributionist programs and Democratic dominance)

• 1896 to 1932, the Fourth Party System (Republicans built a winning coalition of business and the emerging middle class.)

• 1854 to 1896, the Third Party System (northern Republicans vs southern Democrats

• 1824 to 1854, the Second Party System (Jacksonian Democrats vs Henry Clay and the Whigs)

• 1796 to 1824 the First Party System (Hamiltonian Federalists vs the Jeffersonian Democratic-Republicans)

The 6th Party System that has dominated since my youth, came to power after the Civil Rights Laws that were passed in 1964 as the reactionary defection of the Southern Dixiecrats to the Nixonian body politique. Yet even after the disastrous Republican 1976 Presidential election following Watergate, the 6th Party System continued to emerge in the ‘80s. After temporarily losing their majorities in 1992 by 1994, the Republicans gained majorities in the House and blocked Clinton. This divided government was the mainstay outside of a few years in the ‘00s and ‘16. As history runs in patterns the Sixth Party System parallel’s the era preceding the Civil War as the nation vacillated between Jacksonian Democrats and Clay Whigs entrenched partisan camps over slavery.

The purpose of this review is to underscore the value of history as a guidepost to our future. America and its democracy indeed go through fundamental changes in its make-up from generation to generation. Party Systems is actually a generational consolidated consensus allowing for society and government to organize seeking to achieve progress, maintain its own general welfare, and in some times exploit portions of society for another. But a critical review of the cycles of Party Systems that have emerged in this constitutional republic demonstrates that a pattern of one-party generational rule is followed by a competitive two-party organization that eventually invites a period of great polarization between the camps until a political climax is determined---thereby a determinate election.

I end with some insight from a leaked CitiGroup set of the memo’s called the Plutonomy Memos:

“Spending by the uber-rich overwhelms that of the average consumer and helps explain why the U.S. economy has continued to do well. The United States is one of the plutonomy countries whose economies are powered by a relatively small number of rich people...

1. The world is divided into two blocs - the plutonomies, where economic growth is powered by and largely consumed by the wealthy few, and the rest.  

2. We project that the plutonomies (the U.S., UK, and Canada) will likely see even more income inequality, disproportionately feeding off a further rise in the profit share in their economies, capitalist-friendly governments, more technology-driven productivity, and globalization.

3. RISKS -- WHAT COULD GO WRONG? Our whole plutonomy thesis is based on the idea that the rich will keep getting richer.

4. Furthermore, the rising wealth gap between the rich and poor will probably at some point lead to a political backlash. Whilst the rich are getting a greater share of the wealth, and the poor a lesser share.

5. One person, one vote. At some point, it is likely that labor will fight back against the rising profit share of the rich and there will be a political backlash against the rising wealth of the rich. This could be felt through higher taxation on the rich or through trying to protect indigenous laborers, in a push-back on globalization.”

And there you have it. Democracy as a self-correction as a nation rises up to retake its reins of power addressing the exploitative and injustices of a plutonomy. This is where we are at, three weeks before election day.

Participate in America if you haven’t already. in the closing words of James Carville:

Very seldom in American history have there been periods when people can nobly wage a crusade to create real and lasting change. But when these crusades do occur, when those moments arrive, what we do to vanquish the threat to freedom builds something everlasting into the framework of our society.

The American Revolution, the Civil War, World War II, Seneca Falls, Stonewall, and Selma, were all historical flashpoints where Americans displayed their patriotism against oppressive forces in a resounding way. These movements overthrew an empire, ended slavery, staved off totalitarianism, and paved the way for the establishment of fundamental civil rights and liberties for women, LGBTQ+ and black Americans.

We find ourselves again at such a turning point. Donald Trump’s authoritarian presence behind the Resolute Desk is amongst the gravest threats America has ever faced from within. And Americans have risen to meet this threat.

This resistance has created its own seismic shift. Look at the rallying cries for racial justice coming from Americans of all colors, who have joined in arms to speak out. Look at the willingness of voters to wait for hours in lines in Georgia to exercise their democratic right to the franchise. Look at the coalition that has been formed, from Republicans to Democrats to activists, who are determined to stand up to this threat.

April Coronavirus daily updates, Stay-at-Home now extended thirty days

Tuesday, April 7th, Day 33 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado, holding at 4.94%

Twelve days ago Governor Polis announced a "Stay-at-home" order for Colorado and these last two days are demonstrating that a case rate is hovering just below 5%, yet 4529 have been confirmed infected but then again 257 are new and yet at that rate exponentially the cases will double in a week. But this is still good news as the purpose of Governor Polis's efforts was to do just this, give him time to have hospital beds to avert a disaster. 

The death rate, the stark reality rose sharply yesterday with 29 persons succumbing to the disease, 16 in Denver County more than doubling their previous total and taking the lead in Colorado with 31 fatalities. This spiked the death rate back to last week's range with 19%. Our state is doing relatively good in this realm but then I look at San Francisco which reported 9 deaths for the entire outbreak. Thankfully Colorado has only contributed 1.3% of the nation's deaths where Colorado comprises about 1.666% of the nation's population.

The cumulative hospitalizations is a statistical data point I am going to focus on going forward. Cases equate to a range of hospitalization and hospitalizations equate to the death rate. Yesterday the state reported that there were 1,079 in the hospital up from 994 yesterday. Recall that back on March 25th Polis said that Colorado had 1851 ICU beds and wanted to expand that rapidly to 5000 by June. 

Lastly what is clear is that there are three classes of cases defined by age. Over 80 years old, this disease appears to be very deadly and the rate continues to climb above 22%. Over 70 it appears it is killing at a rate of over 7% and also climbing. Over 60 and the rate is still excessive compared to flu above 2%. But then the ages with the highest cases are over 50, followed by those over 40 and then over 30. Below is the detailed demographics.

By Age Colorado:

• unknown age 24 cases,0.044% ttl no hospitalization. 
• +80 yrs old 94 deaths, 21.90% fatal, 302 cases, 7.29% of ttl, 28.28%  hosp, 2.5%  pop 
• 70-79 yrs old, 46 deaths 7.28% fatal, 516 cases 10.35%, 35.23% hosp, 5.36% pop
• 60-69 yrs old, 18 deaths, 1.82% fatal,789 cases 14.86%, 26.52% hosp,11%  pop
• 50-59 yrs old, 12 deaths 0.84% fatal, 990 cases 18.46%, 20.36% hosp, 13% of pop
• 40-49 yrs old, 7 deaths 0.61% fatal, 900 cases 15.76%, 14.35% hosp, 13% of pop
• 30-39 yrs old 2 deaths  0.12% fatal 877 cases 16.19%,9.56% hosp, 13.59% of the pop
• 20-29 yrs old 744 cases, 13.70%, 4.3% hosp, 15% of the pop
• 10-19 yrs old 100 cases 1.84%, 2.0%  hosp, 13% of the pop
• 0-9 yrs old 561 cases 1.07%%, 10.34% hosp, 13% of the population
• Female case 51.73%, Males 47.66, Death rate Female 38.67% Males 61.33%  

Monday, April 6th; Day 32 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado, 4.5% flattening

Governor Jared Polis announced he was extending the STAY-AT-HOME order to April 26th. As my wife said that is in conflict with the President's dictum of April 30th which we explained Trump's edicts have no legal standing but the 26th is a Sunday, while the 30th is a Thursday. Whether either date is determinate is unknown for at least Polis is looking at the data and appears to have a plan copying from South Korea and Taiwan's efforts. What appears in the succeeding histogram (bar graph), is that we peaked between March 31st and April 5th.

The GREAT NEWS that the Governor did not bring forward is that the State of Colorado Public Health Department published its daily report accounting for Colorado's ongoing pandemic, which continues its expansion but one that is now trending at 4.5%. Yesterday's numbers begin with 5172 up from 4950 a sum of 222 down from 385 and the day before 392 which was a decrease itself or a rate of 8.43% !!!  Essentially the doubling rate is now approaching 12-13 days, but that still means the pandemic is live.  THIS IS GREAT NEWS. Take a look back at the Governor's social distance dates and expectations of results. Today is the day for Stay in Place.

Wednesday we will the full effects "stay-at-home" order which the Governor was seeking an 80% reduction in the infection rate. The face mask order is the final social distancing escalation and that effect won't be known until April 14th. But also understand that and additional 40 persons will end up in the hospital in ten to twelve days, like yesterday that number was 69 on top of  70 and week's previous  80, 70, 68, 61, 58, 55 where they will expect twelve to twenty days out 571 people will need to be hospitalized on top of the current 994 in the hospital as of today up from 924 an increase of 70 in one day. Understand Polis said the state had a capacity of 1870 ICU beds and a person is in an ICU bed for one or two weeks.

The death toll rose again and again and again, from 140 to 150. Ten more persons who died a horrible lonely death down four and reduction to 7% in the rate of increase from 11.11% which was a reduction of 14.5%  on Friday and Thursday's  21%  Last Sunday the death toll was 51 so 99 people died this week at a rate of 194%.

The state records have El Paso (28), three more and Weld County with (26) deaths respectively, more than more populous JeffCo (18), Denver (15), Arapahoe (15) and Adams Counties (12). El Paso County's death rate is 6.35% while Weld County's rate is 5.16%. Compare those numbers to Denver's 1.77% or Boulder's 1.59%,

By Age Colorado:

• unknown age 17 cases,0.034% ttl no hospitalization. 
• +80 yrs old 83 deaths, 21.90% fatal, 296 cases, 7.33% of ttl, 28.23%  hosp, 2.5%  pop 
• 70-79 yrs old, 39 deaths 7.28% fatal, 497 cases 10.36%, 34.70% hosp, 5.36% pop
• 60-69 yrs old, 14 deaths, 1.82% fatal,720 cases 14.87%, 26.40% hosp,11%  pop
• 50-59 yrs old, 8 deaths 0.84% fatal, 944 cases 18.41%, 20.48% hosp, 13% of pop
• 40-49 yrs old, 5 death 0.61% fatal, 815 cases 16.90%, 12.93% hosp, 13% of pop
• 30-39 yrs old 1 death  0.12% fatal 814 cases 16.2%, 8.19% hosp, 13.59% of the pop
• 20-29 yrs old 711 cases, 13.73%, 3.94% hosp, 15% of the pop
• 10-19 yrs old 95 cases 1.84%, 2.11%  hosp, 13% of the pop
• 0-9 yrs old 51 cases 0.99%%, 11.76% hosp, 13% of the population
• Female case 51.73%, Males 47.66, Death rate Female 38.67% Males 61.33%  

Sunday, April 5th; Day 31 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado 

The State of Colorado Public Health Department published its daily report accounting for Colorado's pandemic which continues in its expansion and causes a horrible death and an increasing rate. Today's numbers begin with 4950 up from 4565 cases from 4173 and a sum of 385 down from 392 a decrease of  7 but more importantly, the rate of increase of 8.43% !!!  Yes, a decrease rate down from 9.39%!! Last week's rate ranged between 11.55% and 13.87% with yesterday at 11.94%. and now two days below 10% Though looking back at last Sunday the total cases were at 2307, but that was the first day the rate was 11.99%.  and over the week the rate of increase is 114.56%, meaning the doubling is six-plus days. THIS IS GREAT NEWS.

This graph represents the curve flattening

This weekend was the benchmark of the effect of the Governor's school closure and 50% work reduction in social distancing. Wednesday we will see how much the "stay-at-home" order will bring the rate of increase down. The face mask order is the final social distancing escalation and that effect won't be known until April 14th.

But also understand that and additional 69  persons will end up in the hospital in ten to twelve days, like yesterday that number was 70 and day's previous  80, 70, 68, 61, 58, 55 where they will expect twelve to twenty days out 531 people will need to be hospitalized on top of the current 924 in the hospital as of today. I wish they would release the number of people released from the hospital.

The death toll rose significantly again and again and again, from 126 to 140, fourteen more families in Colorado who lost a life but then again there was a decrease in the rate to 11.11% from 13.51%, again a small decrease but then again down a bit from 14.5%  on Friday which reduced from Thursday's  21% and Wednesday's 16%. Last Monday the death toll was 51 so 93 people died this week at a rate of 197%, hopefully, last week for Colorado.  The state records have El Paso (25), three more and Weld County with 24 deaths respectively, 47 to 56% more than more populous JeffCo, and Denver Counties.

By Age Colorado:

• unknown age 17 cases,0.034% ttl no hospitalization. 
• +80 yrs old 77 deaths, 21.33% fatal, 284 cases, 7.29% of ttl, 27.70%  hosp, 2.5%  pop 
• 70-79 yrs old, 35 deaths 6.84% fatal, 477 cases 10.34%, 34.38% hosp, 5.36% pop
• 60-69 yrs old, 14 deaths, 1.91% fatal,720 cases 14.83%, 25.89% hosp,11%  pop
• 50-59 yrs old, 8 deaths 0.88% fatal, 905 cases 18.44%, 19.39% hosp, 13% of pop
• 40-49 yrs old, 5 death 0.63% fatal, 783 cases 15.92%, 12.31% hosp, 13% of pop
• 30-39 yrs old 1 death  0.12% fatal 801 cases 16.2%, 8.35% hosp, 13.59% of the pop
• 20-29 yrs old 681 cases, 13.76%, 3.38% hosp, 15% of the pop
• 10-19 yrs old 93 cases 1.88%, 2.15%  hosp, 13% of the pop
• 0-9 yrs old 49 cases 0.99%%, 10.2% hosp, 13% of the population

Saturday, April 4th; Day 30 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado

The State of Colorado Public Health Department published its daily report accounting that Colorado's pandemic continues to expand and cause deaths and an increasing rate. Today's numbers begin with 4565 cases from 4173 and a sum of 392 down from 445 a decrease of  53, what a decrease? Yes a decrease in the rate down to 9.39%!! Last week's rate ranged between 11.55% and 13.87% with yesterday at 11.94%. Though looking back at last Saturday the total cases were at 2062 and over the week the rate of increase is 121%, the state doubled in six days. Last Saturday was the second day the rate of increase was a tad below 20% now we are below 10% for the first time.

But also understand that and additional 70 persons will end up in the hospital in ten to twelve days, as yesterday that number was 80 and day's previous 70, 68, 61, 58, 55 where they will expect twelve to twenty days out 462 people will need to be hospitalized on top of the current 875 in the hospital as of today.

The death toll rose sadly again and again and again, from 111 to 126, fifteen more souls in Colorado who lost a terrible battle for their life increase of 13.51%, down a bit from 14.5% which was also a decrease from Thursday's  21% and Wednesday's 16%. Just peaking back to last Saturday the death toll was 44 and with an increase of 13 persons. and a weekly rate of 186% where it doubled by Wednesday but the next double Monday or Tuesday or again almost six days. The state records have El Paso and Weld County with 22 deaths respectively and tied for the dubious lead.

By Age Colorado:

• unknown age 17 cases,0.371% ttl no hospitalization. 
• +80 yrs old 70 deaths, 20.28% fatal, 259 cases, 7.21% of ttl, 27.96%  hosp, 2.5%  pop 
• 70-79 yrs old,31 deaths 6.42% fatal, 451 cases 10.58%, 34.78% hosp, 5.36% pop
• 60-69 yrs old, 12 deaths, 1.76% fatal,671 cases 14.96%, 26.505% hosp,11%  pop
• 50-59 yrs old, 8 deaths 0.95% fatal, 833 cases 18.42%, 19.74% hosp, 13% of pop
• 40-49 yrs old, 4 death 0.55% fatal, 720 cases 15.86%, 13.12% hosp, 13% of pop
• 30-39 yrs old 1 death  0.14% fatal 733 cases 16.14%, 8.41% hosp, 13.59% of the pop
• 20-29 yrs old 623 cases, 13.78%, 13.65% hosp%, 15% of the pop
• 10-19 yrs old 33 cases 1.82%, 2.41%  hosp, 13% of the pop
• 0-9 yrs old 45 cases 0.99%%, 11.11% hosp, 13% of the population

Cases by Sex

               Females  51.79                                                             Males  47.71

                                                                      Deaths by Sex

              Females 38.10%                                                           Males 61.90%

Friday, April 3rd; Day 29 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado

Today Governor Polis ordered persons out in public to wear a face mask to protect others and themselves from the airborne transmission of COVID-19. This is as big news as his "stay-at-home" order and closing of schools, restaurants, bars and being in groups of less than ten. If you look at the actions of leaders and not their words the Governor's actions tell us that this virus is exceptionally powerful where it can be transmitted from person to person when the transmitter is not showing symptoms and why it is so contagious.

The State of Colorado Public Health Department published its daily report accounting that Colorado's pandemic continues to expand and cause deaths and an increasing rate. Today's numbers which are actually yesterday's events begin with 4173 cases up from 3728 and a sum of 445 and increase of 59 from yesterday's accounting of 386 and yet AGAIN this is a continued steady rate of 11.94%. This confirms that over the last 7 days where we are plainly on the plateau of a range between 11.55% to 13.87% and three other data points between 12-13%.

But also understand that and additional 80 persons will end up in the hospital as yesterday that number was 70 and day's previous 68, 61, 58, 55 where they will expect twelve to twenty days out 392 people will need to be hospitalized on top of the current 823 in the hospital as of today. Over and over again I see April 15th reaching a critical state of maxing out the original ICU beds in Colorado.

The death toll rose sadly again and again and again, from 97 to 111, fourteen more souls were lost in a horrible early death an increase of 14.5% down from yesterday's 21% and the day prior of 16%. The state records have El Paso broke out again with two more deaths to leading with 18 deaths with Weld showing no deaths in a long time.

By Age Colorado:

• unknown age 17 cases, .41% ttl no hospitalization. 
• +80 yrs old 62 deaths, 20.81% fatal, 233 cases, 7.14% of ttl, 31.21%  hosp, 2.5%  pop 
• 70-79 yrs old,27 deaths 5.95% fatal, 427 cases 10.88%, 35.02% hosp, 5.36% pop
• 60-69 yrs old, 11 deaths, 1.75% fatal,619 cases 15.10%, 26.35% hosp,11%  pop
• 50-59 yrs old, 6 deaths 0.79% fatal, 755 cases 18.24%, 21.02% hosp, 13% of pop
• 40-49 yrs old, 4 death 0.61% fatal, 548 cases 15.62%, 13.34% hosp, 13% of pop
• 30-39 yrs old 1 death  0.15% fatal 669 cases 16.06%, 8.29% hosp, 8.59% of the pop
• 20-29 yrs old 575 cases, 13.78%, 3.65% hosp%, 15% of the pop
• 10-19 yrs old 73 cases 1.75%, 2.74%  hosp, 13% of the pop
• 0-9 yrs old 43 cases 1.13%%, 11.63% hosp, 13% of the population

Thursday, April 2nd; Day 28 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado

The State of Colorado Public Health Department published its daily report accounting that Colorado's pandemic continues to expand and cause deaths and an increasing rate. Today's numbers which are actually yesterday's events start with 3728 cases up from 3342 and a sum of 386.and yet this is a continued minuscule reduction in the rate of increase of 11.55%. This confirms that over the last six days where we are plainly on the plateau of a range between 11.55% to 13.87% and three other data points between 12-13%. But also understand that 70 people up in the hospital, on top of yesterday's 68, and 61 the day before's, and before that 58 and the day previous day's 55. or even in this downward trend 312 will need a hospital bed on top of the 620 in the hospital now and that does not include the week prior when the pandemic was growing at 29%. Over and over again I see April 15th reaching a critical state of maxing out the original ICU beds in Colorado.

The death toll rose sadly again and again and again, from 80 to 97, seventeen souls perished in a horrible early deal a 21.25% increase up from 16% the day before. The state records have El Paso still leading with 16 deaths recording 2 more now tied with Weld which recorded 3. Also, it was reported that a Sheriff's Deputy from the County Jail succumbed from the viral infection.

By Age Colorado:

• unknown age 15 cases, 6.67 hospitalization. 
• +80 yrs old 55 deaths, 20.91% fatal, 208 cases, 5.557% of ttl, 30.08%  hosp, 2.5%  pop 
• 70-79 yrs old,26 deaths 6.39% fatal, 381 cases 10.182%, 31.94% hosp, 5.36% pop
• 60-69 yrs old, 9 deaths, 1.60% fatal, 565 cases 15.15%, 25.71% hosp,11%  pop
• 50-59 yrs old, 4 deaths 0.59% fatal, 676 cases 18.13%, 12.46% hosp, 13% of pop
• 40-49 yrs old, 3 death 0.51% fatal, 518 cases 15.76%, 12.69% hosp, 13% of pop
• 30-39 yrs old 590 cases 16.79%, 8.29% hosp, 8.14% of the pop
• 20-29 yrs old 520 cases, 14.08%, 3.76% hosp%, 15% of the pop
• 10-19 yrs old 64 cases 1.71%, 3.13%  hosp, 13% of the pop
• 0-9 yrs old 39 cases 0.01%%, 7.69% hosp, 13% of the population

Last comment is that I believe the Presidential presentation of last Tuesday when they discussed how bad things were going to be and then presented a model, it appears that the model is rosy.

Wednesday, April 1st; Day 27 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado

Today Governor Polis of Colorado extended the stay-at-home order and to include that schools will be shuttered to April 30th. Wednesday the curve continues to bend towards flattening at a consistent rate of 12-13% with 12.68% down a bit from 12.99%, day before it was 13.87%, the previous day it was 11.99%. on top of 19%, 21%, and 19%.. This almost a perfect model reduction of 50% from an average of 29%. Yet, Colorado's cases increased by 376 where yesterday the increase was 339.

The State of Colorado Public Health Department published its daily report it states that Colorado has risen to 3342 from 2966 yesterday. Remember these confirmations are at least five days from the inception of the contagion. Understand that an increase of 376 means in a short time that 68 of them will end up in the hospital, on top of yesterday's 61, the day before's 58 and the day previous day's 55 or even in this downward trend 242 will need a hospital bed on top of the 620 in the hospital now and that does not include the week prior when the pandemic was growing at 29%. Therefore by April 15th, I can see over 1000 ICU beds in use and growing which was the original capacity.

The death toll rose precipitously again from to 80 who succumbed, 11 more souls lost to this virus a 16% increase.  The state records have El Paso still leading with 14 deaths 1 more than Tuesday, Weld recorded its 13th, again up to one from Tuesday.

By Age Colorado:

• unknown age 15 cases, no hospitalizations. 
• +80 yrs old 44 deaths, 18.33% fatal, 196 cases, 5.869% of ttl, 29.17%  hosp, 2.5%  pop 
• 70-79 yrs old,23 deaths 6.34% fatal, 344 cases 10.32%, 32.51% hosp, 5.36% pop
• 60-69 yrs old, 7 deaths, 1.42% fatal, 487 cases 14.56%, 25.71% hosp,11%  pop
• 50-59 yrs old, 4 deaths 0.66% fatal 599 cases 17.91% 20.23% hosp  21% of pop
• 40-49 yrs old, 2 death 0.38% fatal, 518 cases 15.49%, 12.69% hosp, 13% of pop
• 30-39 yrs old 543 cases 16.79%, 8.29% hosp, 14% of the pop
• 20-29 yrs old 471 cases, 14.08%, 3.18% hosp% ,15% of the pop
• 10-19 yrs old 60 cases 1.79%, 3.33%  hosp, 13% of the pop
• 0-9 yrs old 30 cases  0.089%%, 9.08% hosp, 13% of the population

55% of the deaths in Colorado from Coronavirus are persons over 80 years and 28.75% are of people over 70-79 years old, or 83.75% of people over 70 years, yet 30% are comprising the hospitalizations. If you include the over 60-year-olds, 91.25% comprise the deaths, and 50%of those in the hospital. 

55% of the deaths in Colorado from Coronavirus are persons over 80 years and 28.75% are of people over 70-79 years old, or 83.75% of people over 70 years, yet 30% are comprising the hospitalizations. If you include the over 60-year-olds, 91.25% comprise the deaths, and 50%of those in the hospital.


Tuesday's Report; Day 26 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado and the U.S.

I am archiving March and starting a new in April which I fear that we shall see extreme historical numbers, corresponding events and the knowledge gained or reclaimed from the forgotten. I failed to post yesterday afternoon due to both things that needed to be done and my emotional state from the revelations, veiled as the President and his team tried to express that between 100,000 and 2.2 million souls will perish from this viral pathogen. The low number of between 100,000 and 240,000 lives will be lost prematurely thru August. Dr. Sanjay Gupta on CNN after the presser said the reality is that between 240,000 and 1.1 million will most likely die as the caveat presented by the Presidential Task Force is that their low estimates were based on 100% compliance to social distancing. One problem even with even these social distancing directives is that they are based on the 1930s science where six feet distancing far too short as outlined in this article: MIT researcher warns COVID-19 could travel 27 feet, remain in air for hours

A researcher from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is calling for social distancing guidelines worldwide to be updated, warning that evidence shows the novel coronavirus could travel as far as 27 feet between people and remain airborne for hours.

Dr. Lydia Bourouiba, an associate professor at MIT, published a new study last week citing studies showing that particles from a sneeze or cough could create "a cloud that can span approximately 23 to 27 feet," arguing that droplets carrying COVID-19 could reach such distances and remain airborne for hours at a time. 

Currently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that individuals stay six feet away from each other in public spaces to avoid the spread of COVID-19, and the World Health Organization recommends people keep a distance of three feet apart.

UNMC study gives more indication of airborne transmission of coronavirus;

"More study is underway to determine if live culturable virus was captured in this study and additional evidence is needed to determine the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission via the airborne route," the researchers said.The samples of the study gathered from COVID-19 patient care areas at UNMC found high levels of virus contamination by a method used to rapidly replicate the virus sample on commonly used surfaces and in the air of rooms of those patients. Air samples from hallways outside of rooms where staff were moving in and out of doors were also positive.

The study suggests that COVID-19 patients, even those who are only mildly ill, may create aerosols of virus and contaminate surfaces that may pose a risk for transmission.

I hope any of you reading this heed the warning.

Now Tuesday's Colorado report; As I stated on Monday the curve appears to be bending and Governor Polis confirmed that the doubling is up to 5 days down from a rate of 2 days. The State of Colorado Public Health Department published its daily report it states that Colorado has risen to 2966 from 2627 yesterday., 12.9% The five-day average is now 15.57% daily rate of increase down from the 29% rate of the week earlier. a decrease of 61%!!!!!And yet we are still increasing the infectious rate of over 300 souls each day, yesterday 339 up from yesterday's 320. Remember these confirmations are at least five days from the inception of the contagion.

The death toll rose precipitously again from to 69 who succumbed, 18 FRIGGINE people died Monday from this.up 35% from 8%.  The state records have El Paso still leading with 13 deaths 2 more on Monday, Weld recorded its 12th, again up to two from Monday.

By Age Colorado:

• unknown age 11 cases, no hospitalizations. 
• +80 yrs old 36 deaths, 18.9% fatal, 163 cases, 5.49% of ttl, 25.13%  hosp, 2.5%  pop 
• 70-79 yrs old,22 deaths 6.67% fatal, 308 cases 10.38%, 29.70% hosp, 5.36% pop
• 60-69 yrs old, 5 deaths, 1.16% fatal, 425 cases 14.32%, 24.42% hosp,11%  pop
• 50-59 yrs old, 4 deaths 0.75% fatal 531 cases 17.90% 18.88% hosp  21% of pop
• 40-49 yrs old, 2 death 0.44% fatal, 454 cases 15.30%, 12.28% hosp, 13% of pop
• 30-39 yrs old 498 cases 16.79%, 7.63% hosp, 14% of the pop
• 20-29 yrs old 420 cases, 14.16% ,3.33% hosp% ,15% of the pop
• 10-19 yrs old 55 cases 1.18% 0% no hosp, 13% of the pop
• 0-9 yrs old 31 cases  1.04%%, 3.13% hosp, 13% of the population

 Based on the above numbers twelve days out the expected death toll will almost double with 62.

Now the slides from the Presidential briefing of March 31st.

 But unlike a marketing presentation, the prediction model on the dotted line holds to the zero deviation and yesterday that already was higher with 998 deaths above the 903 predicted. This is something to watch and see how rosy was the modeling.

The state that the virus will begin to burn out in late July and August with a carnage of 93,000 in the zero deviation with a top range of 180,000 and this is the rosy prediction. Sanjay Gupta holds that one should expect something north of 240,000 deaths.