Tuesday, April 7th, Day 33 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado, holding at 4.94%
Twelve days ago Governor Polis announced a "Stay-at-home" order for Colorado and these last two days are demonstrating that a case rate is hovering just below 5%, yet 4529 have been confirmed infected but then again 257 are new and yet at that rate exponentially the cases will double in a week. But this is still good news as the purpose of Governor Polis's efforts was to do just this, give him time to have hospital beds to avert a disaster.
The death rate, the stark reality rose sharply yesterday with 29 persons succumbing to the disease, 16 in Denver County more than doubling their previous total and taking the lead in Colorado with 31 fatalities. This spiked the death rate back to last week's range with 19%. Our state is doing relatively good in this realm but then I look at San Francisco which reported 9 deaths for the entire outbreak. Thankfully Colorado has only contributed 1.3% of the nation's deaths where Colorado comprises about 1.666% of the nation's population.
The cumulative hospitalizations is a statistical data point I am going to focus on going forward. Cases equate to a range of hospitalization and hospitalizations equate to the death rate. Yesterday the state reported that there were 1,079 in the hospital up from 994 yesterday. Recall that back on March 25th Polis said that Colorado had 1851 ICU beds and wanted to expand that rapidly to 5000 by June.
Lastly what is clear is that there are three classes of cases defined by age. Over 80 years old, this disease appears to be very deadly and the rate continues to climb above 22%. Over 70 it appears it is killing at a rate of over 7% and also climbing. Over 60 and the rate is still excessive compared to flu above 2%. But then the ages with the highest cases are over 50, followed by those over 40 and then over 30. Below is the detailed demographics.
- unknown age 24 cases,0.044% ttl no hospitalization.
- +80 yrs old 94 deaths, 21.90% fatal, 302 cases, 7.29% of ttl, 28.28% hosp, 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old, 46 deaths 7.28% fatal, 516 cases 10.35%, 35.23% hosp, 5.36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 18 deaths, 1.82% fatal,789 cases 14.86%, 26.52% hosp,11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 12 deaths 0.84% fatal, 990 cases 18.46%, 20.36% hosp, 13% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 7 deaths 0.61% fatal, 900 cases 15.76%, 14.35% hosp, 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 2 deaths 0.12% fatal 877 cases 16.19%,9.56% hosp, 13.59% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 744 cases, 13.70%, 4.3% hosp, 15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 100 cases 1.84%, 2.0% hosp, 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 561 cases 1.07%%, 10.34% hosp, 13% of the population
- Female case 51.73%, Males 47.66, Death rate Female 38.67% Males 61.33%
Monday, April 6th; Day 32 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado, 4.5% flattening
Governor Jared Polis announced he was extending the STAY-AT-HOME order to April 26th. As my wife said that is in conflict with the President's dictum of April 30th which we explained Trump's edicts have no legal standing but the 26th is a Sunday, while the 30th is a Thursday. Whether either date is determinate is unknown for at least Polis is looking at the data and appears to have a plan copying from South Korea and Taiwan's efforts. What appears in the succeeding histogram (bar graph), is that we peaked between March 31st and April 5th.
The GREAT NEWS that the Governor did not bring forward is that the State of Colorado Public Health Department published its daily report accounting for Colorado's ongoing pandemic, which continues its expansion but one that is now trending at 4.5%. Yesterday's numbers begin with 5172 up from 4950 a sum of 222 down from 385 and the day before 392 which was a decrease itself or a rate of 8.43% !!! Essentially the doubling rate is now approaching 12-13 days, but that still means the pandemic is live. THIS IS GREAT NEWS. Take a look back at the Governor's social distance dates and expectations of results. Today is the day for Stay in Place.
Wednesday we will the full effects "stay-at-home" order which the Governor was seeking an 80% reduction in the infection rate. The face mask order is the final social distancing escalation and that effect won't be known until April 14th. But also understand that and additional 40 persons will end up in the hospital in ten to twelve days, like yesterday that number was 69 on top of 70 and week's previous 80, 70, 68, 61, 58, 55 where they will expect twelve to twenty days out 571 people will need to be hospitalized on top of the current 994 in the hospital as of today up from 924 an increase of 70 in one day. Understand Polis said the state had a capacity of 1870 ICU beds and a person is in an ICU bed for one or two weeks.
The death toll rose again and again and again, from 140 to 150. Ten more persons who died a horrible lonely death down four and reduction to 7% in the rate of increase from 11.11% which was a reduction of 14.5% on Friday and Thursday's 21% Last Sunday the death toll was 51 so 99 people died this week at a rate of 194%.
The state records have El Paso (28), three more and Weld County with (26) deaths respectively, more than more populous JeffCo (18), Denver (15), Arapahoe (15) and Adams Counties (12). El Paso County's death rate is 6.35% while Weld County's rate is 5.16%. Compare those numbers to Denver's 1.77% or Boulder's 1.59%,
By Age Colorado:
- unknown age 17 cases,0.034% ttl no hospitalization.
- +80 yrs old 83 deaths, 21.90% fatal, 296 cases, 7.33% of ttl, 28.23% hosp, 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old, 39 deaths 7.28% fatal, 497 cases 10.36%, 34.70% hosp, 5.36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 14 deaths, 1.82% fatal,720 cases 14.87%, 26.40% hosp,11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 8 deaths 0.84% fatal, 944 cases 18.41%, 20.48% hosp, 13% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 5 death 0.61% fatal, 815 cases 16.90%, 12.93% hosp, 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 1 death 0.12% fatal 814 cases 16.2%, 8.19% hosp, 13.59% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 711 cases, 13.73%, 3.94% hosp, 15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 95 cases 1.84%, 2.11% hosp, 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 51 cases 0.99%%, 11.76% hosp, 13% of the population
- Female case 51.73%, Males 47.66, Death rate Female 38.67% Males 61.33%
Sunday, April 5th; Day 31 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado
The State of Colorado Public Health Department published its daily report accounting for Colorado's pandemic which continues in its expansion and causes a horrible death and an increasing rate. Today's numbers begin with 4950 up from 4565 cases from 4173 and a sum of 385 down from 392 a decrease of 7 but more importantly, the rate of increase of 8.43% !!! Yes, a decrease rate down from 9.39%!! Last week's rate ranged between 11.55% and 13.87% with yesterday at 11.94%. and now two days below 10% Though looking back at last Sunday the total cases were at 2307, but that was the first day the rate was 11.99%. and over the week the rate of increase is 114.56%, meaning the doubling is six-plus days. THIS IS GREAT NEWS.
This graph represents the curve flattening
This weekend was the benchmark of the effect of the Governor's school closure and 50% work reduction in social distancing. Wednesday we will see how much the "stay-at-home" order will bring the rate of increase down. The face mask order is the final social distancing escalation and that effect won't be known until April 14th.
But also understand that and additional 69 persons will end up in the hospital in ten to twelve days, like yesterday that number was 70 and day's previous 80, 70, 68, 61, 58, 55 where they will expect twelve to twenty days out 531 people will need to be hospitalized on top of the current 924 in the hospital as of today. I wish they would release the number of people released from the hospital.
The death toll rose significantly again and again and again, from 126 to 140, fourteen more families in Colorado who lost a life but then again there was a decrease in the rate to 11.11% from 13.51%, again a small decrease but then again down a bit from 14.5% on Friday which reduced from Thursday's 21% and Wednesday's 16%. Last Monday the death toll was 51 so 93 people died this week at a rate of 197%, hopefully, last week for Colorado. The state records have El Paso (25), three more and Weld County with 24 deaths respectively, 47 to 56% more than more populous JeffCo, and Denver Counties.
By Age Colorado:
- unknown age 17 cases,0.034% ttl no hospitalization.
- +80 yrs old 77 deaths, 21.33% fatal, 284 cases, 7.29% of ttl, 27.70% hosp, 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old, 35 deaths 6.84% fatal, 477 cases 10.34%, 34.38% hosp, 5.36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 14 deaths, 1.91% fatal,720 cases 14.83%, 25.89% hosp,11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 8 deaths 0.88% fatal, 905 cases 18.44%, 19.39% hosp, 13% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 5 death 0.63% fatal, 783 cases 15.92%, 12.31% hosp, 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 1 death 0.12% fatal 801 cases 16.2%, 8.35% hosp, 13.59% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 681 cases, 13.76%, 3.38% hosp, 15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 93 cases 1.88%, 2.15% hosp, 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 49 cases 0.99%%, 10.2% hosp, 13% of the population
Saturday, April 4th; Day 30 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado
The State of Colorado Public Health Department published its daily report accounting that Colorado's pandemic continues to expand and cause deaths and an increasing rate. Today's numbers begin with 4565 cases from 4173 and a sum of 392 down from 445 a decrease of 53, what a decrease? Yes a decrease in the rate down to 9.39%!! Last week's rate ranged between 11.55% and 13.87% with yesterday at 11.94%. Though looking back at last Saturday the total cases were at 2062 and over the week the rate of increase is 121%, the state doubled in six days. Last Saturday was the second day the rate of increase was a tad below 20% now we are below 10% for the first time.
But also understand that and additional 70 persons will end up in the hospital in ten to twelve days, as yesterday that number was 80 and day's previous 70, 68, 61, 58, 55 where they will expect twelve to twenty days out 462 people will need to be hospitalized on top of the current 875 in the hospital as of today.
The death toll rose sadly again and again and again, from 111 to 126, fifteen more souls in Colorado who lost a terrible battle for their life increase of 13.51%, down a bit from 14.5% which was also a decrease from Thursday's 21% and Wednesday's 16%. Just peaking back to last Saturday the death toll was 44 and with an increase of 13 persons. and a weekly rate of 186% where it doubled by Wednesday but the next double Monday or Tuesday or again almost six days. The state records have El Paso and Weld County with 22 deaths respectively and tied for the dubious lead.
By Age Colorado:
- unknown age 17 cases,0.371% ttl no hospitalization.
- +80 yrs old 70 deaths, 20.28% fatal, 259 cases, 7.21% of ttl, 27.96% hosp, 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old,31 deaths 6.42% fatal, 451 cases 10.58%, 34.78% hosp, 5.36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 12 deaths, 1.76% fatal,671 cases 14.96%, 26.505% hosp,11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 8 deaths 0.95% fatal, 833 cases 18.42%, 19.74% hosp, 13% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 4 death 0.55% fatal, 720 cases 15.86%, 13.12% hosp, 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 1 death 0.14% fatal 733 cases 16.14%, 8.41% hosp, 13.59% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 623 cases, 13.78%, 13.65% hosp%, 15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 33 cases 1.82%, 2.41% hosp, 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 45 cases 0.99%%, 11.11% hosp, 13% of the population
Cases by Sex
Females 51.79 Males 47.71
Deaths by Sex
Females 38.10% Males 61.90%
Friday, April 3rd; Day 29 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado
Today Governor Polis ordered persons out in public to wear a face mask to protect others and themselves from the airborne transmission of COVID-19. This is as big news as his "stay-at-home" order and closing of schools, restaurants, bars and being in groups of less than ten. If you look at the actions of leaders and not their words the Governor's actions tell us that this virus is exceptionally powerful where it can be transmitted from person to person when the transmitter is not showing symptoms and why it is so contagious.
The State of Colorado Public Health Department published its daily report accounting that Colorado's pandemic continues to expand and cause deaths and an increasing rate. Today's numbers which are actually yesterday's events begin with 4173 cases up from 3728 and a sum of 445 and increase of 59 from yesterday's accounting of 386 and yet AGAIN this is a continued steady rate of 11.94%. This confirms that over the last 7 days where we are plainly on the plateau of a range between 11.55% to 13.87% and three other data points between 12-13%.
But also understand that and additional 80 persons will end up in the hospital as yesterday that number was 70 and day's previous 68, 61, 58, 55 where they will expect twelve to twenty days out 392 people will need to be hospitalized on top of the current 823 in the hospital as of today. Over and over again I see April 15th reaching a critical state of maxing out the original ICU beds in Colorado.
The death toll rose sadly again and again and again, from 97 to 111, fourteen more souls were lost in a horrible early death an increase of 14.5% down from yesterday's 21% and the day prior of 16%. The state records have El Paso broke out again with two more deaths to leading with 18 deaths with Weld showing no deaths in a long time.
By Age Colorado:
- unknown age 17 cases, .41% ttl no hospitalization.
- +80 yrs old 62 deaths, 20.81% fatal, 233 cases, 7.14% of ttl, 31.21% hosp, 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old,27 deaths 5.95% fatal, 427 cases 10.88%, 35.02% hosp, 5.36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 11 deaths, 1.75% fatal,619 cases 15.10%, 26.35% hosp,11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 6 deaths 0.79% fatal, 755 cases 18.24%, 21.02% hosp, 13% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 4 death 0.61% fatal, 548 cases 15.62%, 13.34% hosp, 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 1 death 0.15% fatal 669 cases 16.06%, 8.29% hosp, 8.59% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 575 cases, 13.78%, 3.65% hosp%, 15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 73 cases 1.75%, 2.74% hosp, 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 43 cases 1.13%%, 11.63% hosp, 13% of the population
Thursday, April 2nd; Day 28 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado
The State of Colorado Public Health Department published its daily report accounting that Colorado's pandemic continues to expand and cause deaths and an increasing rate. Today's numbers which are actually yesterday's events start with 3728 cases up from 3342 and a sum of 386.and yet this is a continued minuscule reduction in the rate of increase of 11.55%. This confirms that over the last six days where we are plainly on the plateau of a range between 11.55% to 13.87% and three other data points between 12-13%. But also understand that 70 people up in the hospital, on top of yesterday's 68, and 61 the day before's, and before that 58 and the day previous day's 55. or even in this downward trend 312 will need a hospital bed on top of the 620 in the hospital now and that does not include the week prior when the pandemic was growing at 29%. Over and over again I see April 15th reaching a critical state of maxing out the original ICU beds in Colorado.
The death toll rose sadly again and again and again, from 80 to 97, seventeen souls perished in a horrible early deal a 21.25% increase up from 16% the day before. The state records have El Paso still leading with 16 deaths recording 2 more now tied with Weld which recorded 3. Also, it was reported that a Sheriff's Deputy from the County Jail succumbed from the viral infection.
By Age Colorado:
- unknown age 15 cases, 6.67 hospitalization.
- +80 yrs old 55 deaths, 20.91% fatal, 208 cases, 5.557% of ttl, 30.08% hosp, 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old,26 deaths 6.39% fatal, 381 cases 10.182%, 31.94% hosp, 5.36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 9 deaths, 1.60% fatal, 565 cases 15.15%, 25.71% hosp,11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 4 deaths 0.59% fatal, 676 cases 18.13%, 12.46% hosp, 13% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 3 death 0.51% fatal, 518 cases 15.76%, 12.69% hosp, 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 590 cases 16.79%, 8.29% hosp, 8.14% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 520 cases, 14.08%, 3.76% hosp%, 15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 64 cases 1.71%, 3.13% hosp, 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 39 cases 0.01%%, 7.69% hosp, 13% of the population
Wednesday, April 1st; Day 27 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado
Today Governor Polis of Colorado extended the stay-at-home order and to include that schools will be shuttered to April 30th. Wednesday the curve continues to bend towards flattening at a consistent rate of 12-13% with 12.68% down a bit from 12.99%, day before it was 13.87%, the previous day it was 11.99%. on top of 19%, 21%, and 19%.. This almost a perfect model reduction of 50% from an average of 29%. Yet, Colorado's cases increased by 376 where yesterday the increase was 339.
The State of Colorado Public Health Department published its daily report it states that Colorado has risen to 3342 from 2966 yesterday. Remember these confirmations are at least five days from the inception of the contagion. Understand that an increase of 376 means in a short time that 68 of them will end up in the hospital, on top of yesterday's 61, the day before's 58 and the day previous day's 55 or even in this downward trend 242 will need a hospital bed on top of the 620 in the hospital now and that does not include the week prior when the pandemic was growing at 29%. Therefore by April 15th, I can see over 1000 ICU beds in use and growing which was the original capacity.
The death toll rose precipitously again from to 80 who succumbed, 11 more souls lost to this virus a 16% increase. The state records have El Paso still leading with 14 deaths 1 more than Tuesday, Weld recorded its 13th, again up to one from Tuesday.
By Age Colorado:
- unknown age 15 cases, no hospitalizations.
- +80 yrs old 44 deaths, 18.33% fatal, 196 cases, 5.869% of ttl, 29.17% hosp, 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old,23 deaths 6.34% fatal, 344 cases 10.32%, 32.51% hosp, 5.36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 7 deaths, 1.42% fatal, 487 cases 14.56%, 25.71% hosp,11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 4 deaths 0.66% fatal 599 cases 17.91% 20.23% hosp 21% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 2 death 0.38% fatal, 518 cases 15.49%, 12.69% hosp, 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 543 cases 16.79%, 8.29% hosp, 14% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 471 cases, 14.08%, 3.18% hosp% ,15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 60 cases 1.79%, 3.33% hosp, 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 30 cases 0.089%%, 9.08% hosp, 13% of the population
55% of the deaths in Colorado from Coronavirus are persons over 80 years and 28.75% are of people over 70-79 years old, or 83.75% of people over 70 years, yet 30% are comprising the hospitalizations. If you include the over 60-year-olds, 91.25% comprise the deaths, and 50%of those in the hospital.
55% of the deaths in Colorado from Coronavirus are persons over 80 years and 28.75% are of people over 70-79 years old, or 83.75% of people over 70 years, yet 30% are comprising the hospitalizations. If you include the over 60-year-olds, 91.25% comprise the deaths, and 50%of those in the hospital.
Tuesday's Report; Day 26 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado and the U.S.
I am archiving March and starting a new in April which I fear that we shall see extreme historical numbers, corresponding events and the knowledge gained or reclaimed from the forgotten. I failed to post yesterday afternoon due to both things that needed to be done and my emotional state from the revelations, veiled as the President and his team tried to express that between 100,000 and 2.2 million souls will perish from this viral pathogen. The low number of between 100,000 and 240,000 lives will be lost prematurely thru August. Dr. Sanjay Gupta on CNN after the presser said the reality is that between 240,000 and 1.1 million will most likely die as the caveat presented by the Presidential Task Force is that their low estimates were based on 100% compliance to social distancing. One problem even with even these social distancing directives is that they are based on the 1930s science where six feet distancing far too short as outlined in this article: MIT researcher warns COVID-19 could travel 27 feet, remain in air for hours
A researcher from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology is calling for social distancing guidelines worldwide to be updated, warning that evidence shows the novel coronavirus could travel as far as 27 feet between people and remain airborne for hours.
Dr. Lydia Bourouiba, an associate professor at MIT, published a new study last week citing studies showing that particles from a sneeze or cough could create "a cloud that can span approximately 23 to 27 feet," arguing that droplets carrying COVID-19 could reach such distances and remain airborne for hours at a time.
Currently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that individuals stay six feet away from each other in public spaces to avoid the spread of COVID-19, and the World Health Organization recommends people keep a distance of three feet apart.UNMC study gives more indication of airborne transmission of coronavirus;
"More study is underway to determine if live culturable virus was captured in this study and additional evidence is needed to determine the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission via the airborne route," the researchers said.The samples of the study gathered from COVID-19 patient care areas at UNMC found high levels of virus contamination by a method used to rapidly replicate the virus sample on commonly used surfaces and in the air of rooms of those patients. Air samples from hallways outside of rooms where staff were moving in and out of doors were also positive.
The study suggests that COVID-19 patients, even those who are only mildly ill, may create aerosols of virus and contaminate surfaces that may pose a risk for transmission.
I hope any of you reading this heed the warning.
Now Tuesday's Colorado report; As I stated on Monday the curve appears to be bending and Governor Polis confirmed that the doubling is up to 5 days down from a rate of 2 days. The State of Colorado Public Health Department published its daily report it states that Colorado has risen to 2966 from 2627 yesterday., 12.9% The five-day average is now 15.57% daily rate of increase down from the 29% rate of the week earlier. a decrease of 61%!!!!!And yet we are still increasing the infectious rate of over 300 souls each day, yesterday 339 up from yesterday's 320. Remember these confirmations are at least five days from the inception of the contagion.
The death toll rose precipitously again from to 69 who succumbed, 18 FRIGGINE people died Monday from this.up 35% from 8%. The state records have El Paso still leading with 13 deaths 2 more on Monday, Weld recorded its 12th, again up to two from Monday.
By Age Colorado:
- unknown age 11 cases, no hospitalizations.
- +80 yrs old 36 deaths, 18.9% fatal, 163 cases, 5.49% of ttl, 25.13% hosp, 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old,22 deaths 6.67% fatal, 308 cases 10.38%, 29.70% hosp, 5.36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 5 deaths, 1.16% fatal, 425 cases 14.32%, 24.42% hosp,11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 4 deaths 0.75% fatal 531 cases 17.90% 18.88% hosp 21% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 2 death 0.44% fatal, 454 cases 15.30%, 12.28% hosp, 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 498 cases 16.79%, 7.63% hosp, 14% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 420 cases, 14.16% ,3.33% hosp% ,15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 55 cases 1.18% 0% no hosp, 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 31 cases 1.04%%, 3.13% hosp, 13% of the population
Now the slides from the Presidential briefing of March 31st.
The state that the virus will begin to burn out in late July and August with a carnage of 93,000 in the zero deviation with a top range of 180,000 and this is the rosy prediction. Sanjay Gupta holds that one should expect something north of 240,000 deaths.
