Monday, March 30th; Day 25 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado
The death toll rose precipitously again from to 51 deaths, up by the number of four and a rise of 8%,. again a two-reduction. The state records have El Paso still leading with 11 deaths in El Paso County but now Weld recorded its 10th.
- unknown age 11 cases, no hospitalizations.
- +80 yrs old 23 deaths, 13.22% fatal, 151 cases, 6.62% of ttl, 27.59% hosp, 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old,18 deaths 6.38% fatal, 264 cases 10.73%, 27.66% hosp, 5.36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 5 deaths, 1.36% fatal, 364 cases 14.05%, 21.68% hosp,11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 3 deaths 0.64% fatal 468 cases 17.93% 18.26% hosp 21% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 2 death 0.50% fatal, 402 cases 15.38%, 10.89% hosp, 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 455 cases 16.91%, 7.2% hosp, 14% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 384 cases, 14.87% ,3.3% hosp% ,15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 49 cases 0% no hosp, 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 27 cases 3.57%, 4.35% hosp, 13% of the population
Sunday, March 29th; Day 24 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado
The raw number is that there are 245 new patients but the trend is changing from an average of a consistent level of 29.33% to the current average 17.75%; a decrease of 39.48%
The death toll rose precipitously again from to 47 deaths, up by the number three and a rise of 7%,. again a reduction. The thing is the state recorded the 11th death in El Paso County and the 9th death in Weld County after the Denver Post stated that Weld and El Paso Counties had three of the ten nursing homes where outbreaks are known.
- unknown age 10 cases, no hospitalizations.
- +80 yrs old 22 deaths, 14.47% fatal, 130 cases, 6.59% of ttl, 25.66% hosp, 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old,15 deaths 6.12% fatal, 230 cases 10.62%, 24.08% hosp, 5.36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 5 deaths, 1.51% fatal, 289 cases 14.39%, 19.28% hosp,11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 3 deaths 0.74% fatal 404 cases 17.08% 15.97% hosp 21% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 2 death 0.67% fatal, 354 cases 15.43%, 11.24% hosp, 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 390 cases 16.91%, 5.9% hosp, 14% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 343 cases, 14.87% , 2.62% hosp% ,15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 49 cases 2.12% no hosp, 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 22 cases 1.0%, 4.35% hosp, 13% of the population
Saturday, March 28; Day 23 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado
The State of Colorado Public Health Department's daily report was released again and it states that Colorado has risen above two thousand with 2062 confirmed cases. The good news is that the rise was 19% increase from the day before even though it was 328, twenty-four more than yesterday's this is the second time the rate has fallen below 20%, yesterday it was 21%, day before 19% all down from 27%, 37%, 22%, 37%, 27%, 37%, 22%, 24%, and 31%. Am I making something out of something that appears to be a small deviation from the norm but on average if the increase is 10% less we are beginning to see the curve flatten? Is this a consequence when on March 6th we began the process of social distancing by the governor's emergency management team trend lines will tell but he did say this was the first date to see results.
The death toll rose precipitously again from 31 to 44 or 13 new deaths recorded by the state, a rise of 42%. I heard personally about a friend of a friend who died very quickly from going asymptomatic to crashing to being in the hospital and dying in 24 hours. He developed an embolism in his lung while in the ICU, I have had those. He was 59 years old.
- unknown age 9 cases, no hospitalizations.
- +80 yrs old 21 deaths, 15.56% fatal, 114 cases, 6.55% of ttl, 22.22% hosp, 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old,14 deaths 6.36% fatal, 206 cases 10.67%, 21.82% hosp, 5.36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 4 deaths, 1.37% fatal, 289 cases 14.22%, 18.09% hosp,11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 3 deaths 0.85% fatal 351 cases 17.08% 15.63% hosp 21% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 2 death 0.67% fatal, 321 cases 15.67%, 11.46% hosp, 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 351 cases 17.03%, 19 hosp 5.41%, 14% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 308 cases, 14.94% , 2.92% hosp% ,15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 48 cases 2.33% no hosp, 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 21 cases 1.07%, no hosp, 13% of the population
Governor Jared Polis presented the State of Colorado Public Health Department daily report while also presenting to the state a down and dirty set of facts and reasons why the state is closed and what is the challenge that lays ahead for all of us. You can see his slide presentation here. Colorado reported that 1734 have been confirmed COVID-19 up 304 from yesterday's 1430 (an increase of 21% and down a smidge from 31% which is back the range recorded earlier this week. The past week in this order the rate of increase is 21%-19%, 27%, 37%, 22%, 24%, and 31% so yesterday's number does not seem to be reflected in the first social distancing which the Governor said will not show up until Saturday.)
The 304 new cases is down a bit from yesterday's 344. Seven more deaths were recorded bringing the total up to 31. El Paso County still leads with 7 thirteen counties and one out of stater has recorded a death but the clusters are El Paso (7), Weld (6), Jefferson (5), Denver (3) all rest with one fatality. The fatality rate is now 1.79%, 239 are hospitalized which huge increase of 55 up from 37, over the last four days it has increased 167 and doubling in less than three days.
By Age Colorado :
- unknown age 5 is over 80
- +80 yrs old 14 deaths, 13.21% fatal, 92 cases, 6.11% of tll, 23.58% hosp, 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old,10 deaths 5.46% fatal, 173 cases 10.55% 22.4% hosp, 5.36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 4 deaths, 1.6% fatal,246 cases 14.42% 48 hosp,22.4% of ttl,11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 2 deaths 0.68% fatal 292 cases 16.96% 40 hosp 16.33% of ttl 21% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 1 death 0.35% fatal, 281 cases 16.26%, 33 hosp 11.7%, 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 301 cases 17.36%, 19 hosp 6.31%, 14% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 250 cases, 14.42% , 7 hosp, 2.8% ,15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 43 cases 2.48% no hosp, 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 19 cases 1.15%, no hosp, 13% of the population
Yesterday Governor Polis presented to the state the justification for the shelter in place orders and business shutdowns, it was greatly informative especially connecting what is known as the R Naught factor (contagious rate one person to others, Polis said in Colorado it was between 3 & 4), how the levels of shutdowns are expected to tap that down to a level the healthcare can handle as well as lower the death rates and then reach us to the day where normalcy can return.
The highlights are that the Governor seeks to add 1000 ICU beds by May up from 1849 and 5000 this summer. Why? With a four (4) R Naught factor, it is estimated that Colorado will see:
- If no social distancing Colorado would have seen; 13,800 demand for ICU beds with 900 available
- 40% social distancing (1st stage) 9,400-bed demand
- 50% social distancing (2nd stage) 7,300-bed demand
- 60% social distancing (3rd stage) 4,500-bed demand
- No social distancing 33,200 souls perish
- 40% social distancing (1st stage) souls 26,000 souls perish
- 50% social distancing (2nd stage) 19,900 souls perish
- 60% social distancing (3rd stage) 11,500 souls perish
- If no social distancing Colorado would see a 11,600 demand for ICU beds by June 1st
- 40% social distancing (1st stage) 5,600-bed demand
- 50% social distancing (2nd stage) 3,300-bed demand
- 60% social distancing (3rd stage) 900-bed demand
- No social distancing 23,200 souls perish
- 40% social distancing (1st stage) souls 1600 souls perish
- 50% social distancing (2nd stage) 800 souls perish
- 60% social distancing (3rd stage) 400 souls perish
March 26th, Thursday; Day 21 of the Coronavirus Outbreak in Colorado
The State of Colorado Public Health Department reports that 1430 persons (an increase of 31%, which is back the range recorded earlier this week) are now infected with Coronavirus, 344 new cases, countering the rate of increase went negative by (-9.38%) yesterday. Looking at this over three days we doubled from 710 from Sunday to Wednesday. We have not peaked yet. Four more deaths were reported as of yesterday, and late were two more in El Paso County yesterday evening bringing our number up to seven and the state's number to 24. his is sad. the fatality rate is now 1.68%, 184 are hospitalized which is a huge increase from 37, over the last three days it has increased 112 and doubling in less than three days, but downturn hospitalization rate is fallen a bit to 12,86%.
By Age Colorado :
- unknown age 4 is over 80
- +80 yrs old 11 deaths, 13.58% fatal, 70 cases, 4.9% of tll, 19 hosp 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old,7 deaths 4.8% fatal 138 9.6% cases,29 hos, 15.7% constitute 36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 3 deaths, 1.46% fatal,198 13.8% cases 34 hosp,18,5% of ttl constitute 11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 2 deaths 0.84% fatal 243 17% cases 40 hosp 21.7% of ttl constitute 13.66% pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 1 death 0.62% fatal 321 17% cases, 25 13.6% hosp constitute 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 247 17% cases , 17 9% hosp., constitute 14% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 198 13.8% cases up no hosp, 15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 38 2.6% cases up no hosp, constitute 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 18 1.2% no hosp 1.38% of ttl 13% of the population
By Gender in Colorado
Females (50.0%) // Males (49.09%) Males and there are 0.91% unknown or unstated
March 25th, Wednesday; Day 20 of the Coronavirus outbreak in Colorado
Governor Polis closes the state with stay at home order for the entire state starting 6 AM Thursday March 26th.
The State of Colorado public health reports that 1086 persons (an increase of 19%) are now infected with Coronavirus, 174 new cases, but the rate of increase of 98% and there if you combine the two days after yesterday's negative by (-9.38%) yesterday it was up 27%. Is this the apex or is it an anomaly? Nine more Coloradoans died increasing the total to twenty and even though we are not close to leading the nation this is sad. the fatality rate is now 1.84%. 147 are now hospitalized which is a huge increase from 84.at a rate of 425%, we are seeing the lag time of 2 to 3 weeks before the illness's fast downturn hospitalization rate is 13.5%. growing from yesterday's 9.2%.
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| made by John Jarrell |
My locale, El Paso County recorded 122 cases up from 106 increasing by 16, (15% more cases) and a half from yesterday's 37 which doubled in a day. The rate of increase also is negative (-56%) One hundred-twenty-two places El Paso County 2nd in the state behind Denver County (214) and Eagle County the mountain resort area of Eagle County rose by 24 to (120). Larger sample size needs to see what the trend line is actually doing. El Paso has the most deaths with five (25%) for the entire state.
By Age Colorado :
- unknown age 4 is over 80
- +80 yrs old 7 death, cases, down to 51 5.34% of tll, 15 hosp 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old, 7 deaths 106 cases, 26 hosp, 10.41% of ttl constitute 36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 3 deaths, 146 cases up 26 hosp, 13.63% of ttl constitute 11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 2 deaths 178 cases up 34 hosp 16.57% of ttl constitute 21% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 1 death 203 cases 18.76% of ttl,19 hosp constitute 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 187 cases up 17.22% of ttl, 13 hosp constitute 14% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 149 cases up 13.90% of ttl no hosp, 15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 26 cases up 2.39% of ttl no hosp, constitute 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 15 no hosp 1.38% of ttl 13% of the population
By Gender in Colorado
Females (48.34%) // Males (50.55%) Males and there are 1.10% unknown or unstated
Also, six counties on the Front Range ordered stay-at-home orders for six Front Range counties issued Wednesday morning. The orders go into effect for residents in Boulder, Jefferson, Broomfield, Adams, Arapahoe and Douglas Counties beginning Thursday at 8 a.m.But at 4 PM Governor Polis ordered stay at home for the entire State of Colorado.
March 24th, Tuesday; Day 19 of the Coronavirus outbreak in Colorado
The State of Colorado public health reports that 912 persons are now infected with Coronavirus, 192 new cases, an increase of 27% up from yesterday by 5 points and rate of increase of 49%. There is no good news here. Twelve more are hospitalized but that is reduced a bit in that four people perished bringing that number to 11, the fatality rate is 1.2% and this which makes the increase in hospitalization of 14%. At 84 in the hospital, CO is hospitalizing 9.2%, the only bright spot.
My locale, El Paso County recorded 106 COVID-19 cases, up 37, this is a very bad increase of 105% or doubling in one day!!!! The106 places El Paso County 2nd in the state behind Denver County (176) and Eagle County the mountain resort area of Eagle County rose by four to (96).
By Age Colorado :
- unknown age 4 is over 807
- +80 yrs old 27 2 death, cases, up 55, (66%) 6% of tll, 7 hosp (7.6%) constitute 2.5% pop
- 70-79 yrs old, 6 deaths 117 cases up 19 (19%)at 13% of ttl, 20 hosp (23%), constitute 36% pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 2 deaths, 147 cases up 29 (25%) at 16% of ttl 18 hosp (23%)constitute 11% pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 1 death 166 cases up 46 (22%) 16% of ttl 18 hosp (22%) constitute 21% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 185 cases up 32(21%) at 2% of ttl 10 hosp (12%) constitute 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 166 cases up 37(29%) at 18% of ttl 9 hosp(11%) constitute 14% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 122 cases up 21(21%) at 13% of ttl no hosp 15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 23 cases up 5(28%) at 2.5% of the ttl no hosp constitute 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 11 cases up 6(120%) at 1.2% of the ttl no hosp 13% of the population
By Gender in Colorado
Females 452 up 60 (49.56%) // Males 460, up 67 (50.43%) Males
This ratio is significant as worldwide males are twice as likely to die than females running about 70% of the fatalities. So over 64 years old or older, men with underlying health conditions seem presupposed to a higher risk. I have not ascertained death rates by gender in Colorado.
Personal: Yesterday we spent my 63-year-old birthday at a picnic in Canyonwood Canyon State Park which we thought would be less visited. We found available picnic tables, maintained social distance and found that people with many younger families walking on paths with dogs and enjoying the best weather day on the Front Range. Ironically Mayor Suthers of Colorado Springs got on the local news last night and demanded that El Paso residents find other parks to hike and visit besides the famous Garden of the Gods where social distancing is not maintained.
March 23rd, Monday, Day 18 Coronavirus outbreak in Colorado
The State of Colorado news reports that 720 cases an increase of 22% and 129 new confirmed cases increase of 11% which is actually good news. Yesterday the increase was 24%, today 22% and both shallower than 31%. This is called flattening the curve, but the reality is this has to fall by a factor to near 1 to 1, not 1 to 1.22, then 1 to 0.5. The bad news is that 72 are now hospitalized, an increase of 14, up 56%, yesterday it was 18%, where there was another death. We are hospitalizing 10% which is below the expected number of 15%.
By Age Colorado :
- unknown age 3 is over 80
- +80 yrs old 27 1 death, cases, up 33, 4.5% of tll, 6 hospitalized (8%) constitute 2.5% of pop
- 70-79 yrs old, 4 deaths 98 cases up 38 at 14% of ttl,18 hosp (25%), constitute 36% of the pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 2 deaths, 118 cases up 36 at 16% of ttl 18 hosp (25%)constitute 11% of the pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 120 cases up 58 at 16% of ttl 16 hosp (22%) constitute 13.66% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 153 cases up 36 at 22% of ttl 8 hosp (11%) constitute 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 129 cases up 17 at 18% of ttl 6 hosp(8%) constitute 14% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 101 cases up 18 at 14% of ttl no hosp 15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 18 cases up 1 at 2.5% of the ttl no hosp constitute 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 5 cases up 3 at 0.6% of the ttl no hosp 13% of the population
My locale, El Paso County recorded 69 COVID-19 cases, up 18, this is a bad increase of 35%, slight bending from 38% over the last three days. The number of sixty-nine places El Paso County 3rd in the state behind Denver County (148) and mountain resort area of Eagle County (92). One important note is that 11.56% of those tested are positive which is above the national average of 8%.
By Age Colorado :
- unknown age 3 is over 80
- +80 yrs old 27 1 death, cases, up 33, 4.5% of tll, 6 hospitalized (8%) constitute 2.5% of pop
- 70-79 yrs old, 4 deaths 98 cases up 38 at 14% of ttl,18 hosp (25%), constitute 36% of the pop
- 60-69 yrs old, 2 deaths, 118 cases up 36 at 16% of ttl 18 hosp (25%)constitute 11% of the pop
- 50-59 yrs old, 120 cases up 58 at 16% of ttl 16 hosp (22%) constitute 13.66% of pop
- 40-49 yrs old, 153 cases up 36 at 22% of ttl 8 hosp (11%) constitute 13% of pop
- 30-39 yrs old 129 cases up 17 at 18% of ttl 6 hosp(8%) constitute 14% of the pop
- 20-29 yrs old 101 cases up 18 at 14% of ttl no hosp 15% of the pop
- 10-19 yrs old 18 cases up 1 at 2.5% of the ttl no hosp constitute 13% of the pop
- 0-9 yrs old 5 cases up 3 at 0.6% of the ttl no hosp 13% of the population
By Gender in Colorado
Females 351 up 60 (48.75%) // Males 368, up 67 (51.1%) Males (Significant change in trendline)
Two things learned today:
- New York Times Reports that losing a sense of smell or taste suggests the earliest sign of infection by a coronavirus. https://www.nytimes.com/…/coronavirus-symptoms-smell-taste.…
- Emergency room nurses are reporting a major source of transmission are gasoline handles!
Match 22nd, Day 17 in Colorado
State of Colorado news today was that now 591 coronavirus cases are confirmed an increase of 116 up, 24.42% down from the consistent 31% over the last couple days. If this is a trend for our state than one might backtrack the semi-lockdown imposed by Governor Polis, we shall see since today's statistics are an echo of something ten days ago. Fifty-eight are now hospitalized, again up from 49 up 18.37%. 5436 tests administered and 10.1% are positive, running along the national median. El Paso County is now 51, up 14 and again up 38% the same as yesterday.
By Age:
- unknown age 3 is over 80
- +80 yrs old 27 cases, up 11, at 5% of total where they constitute 2.5% of the population
- 70-79 yrs old, 60 cases up 12 at 10% of ttl where they constitute 5.36% of the population
- 60-69 yrs old,82 cases up 15 at 14% of ttl where they constitute 11% of the population
- 50-59 yrs old, 95 cases up 17 at 17% of ttl where they constitute 13.66% of population
- 40-49 yrs old, 117 cases up 22 at 20% of ttl where they constitute 13% of population
- 30-39 yrs old 102 cases up 17 at 17% of ttl where they constitute 14% of the population
- 20-29 yrs old 83 cases up 17 at 14% of ttl where they constitute 15% of the population
- 10-19 yrs old 17 cases up 2 at 3% of the ttl where they constitute 13% of the population
- 0-9 yrs old 2 cases up 2 at 1% o the ttl where they represent 13% of the population
Females 291 up 45 (49.24%) // Males 301, up 72 (50.93%) Males (Significant change in trendline)
Hospitalization
- +80... 5 increase of 1
- 70-79 yrs 11, an increase of 1
- 60-69 yrs 17, an increase of 0
- 50-59 yrs 11, an increase of 1
- 40-49 yrs 7, an increase of 3
- 30-39 yrs 6, an increase of 2
A) Obstruction of respiratory pathways with thick mucus that solidifies the airways and lungs. so they have to unblock the airways then apply medicine for treatment to take effect. BUT THIS TAKES A NUMBER OF DAYS
B) Recommendations for safeguarding yourself are:
- Drink lots of warm liquids, coffee, tea, warm water, soups, TAKE A SIP of WARM WATER EVERY 20 MIN to flush the virus wash down out of the mouth to the stomach juices before it gets to the lungs
- Gargle with an antiseptic (lemon, salt, vinegar) every day.
- The virus does attach itself to hair follicles so you want to take a bath or shower from coming off streets or community areas EVERY TIME!) Wear hats if possible. Take your clothes off immediately and either wash them or place them in sunlight, sunlight UV light kills the virus.
- Wash metallic surfaces daily with alcohol-based products or soap & water, especially handrails, doorknobs, etc. The virus can remain valid for 3-9 days.
- Don't smoke
- Wash hands as much as every 20 minutes with soap that foams.
- Eat fruits and vegetables elevate Zinc levels.
- Animals don't spread the virus, it is a person to person transmission.
- Avoid getting the common flu or cold because it weakens the immune system.
- If you feel a sore throat attack it immediately, using the above methods before it travels to the lungs often over three days.
March 21st, Day 16 in Colorado
Today we went out for a few things we recognized we might want or need if we are locked down for eight weeks, but we now used for the first time the curbside pickup service at Walmart and Cheers. We then used our disinfectant wipes to cleanse the product's exterior.
The daily count is now in and it is not good in any way: https://covid19.colorado.gov/data
- Colorado reported up to 475 from 363, up 31%, same as 3/20
- If this trajectory remains constant Sunday the number will grow to 622.
- New Cases 112 again growth at 30%
- El Paso County up to 37, up 10 growth rate above state mean, up 37%
- CO Hospitalization up to 49 increase up 5, increase 12% which is an improvement
- Another death reported now at 5.
By Age:
- +80 yrs old 19 cases, up from 8, at 4% of total where they constitute 2.5% of the population
- 70-79 yrs old, 48 cases up from 11 at 10% of ttl where they constitute 5.36% of the population
- 60-69 yrs old, 67 cases up 15 at 14% of ttl where they constitute 11% of the population
- 50-59 yrs old, 81 cases up 17 at 17% of ttl where they constitute 13.66% of population
- 40-49 yrs old, 95 cases up 33 at 20% of ttl where they constitute 13% of population
- 30-39 yrs old 85 cases up 21 at 81% of ttl where they constitute 14% of the population
- 20-29 yrs old 66 cases up 13 at 14% of ttl where they constitute 15% of the population
- 10-19 yrs old 15 cases up 0 at 3% of the ttl where they constitute 13% of the population
- 0-9 yrs old 4 cases up 1 at 1% o the ttl where they represent 13% of the population
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| The UC Health Downtown ER Tent |
- Women 246 51.79%
- Male 229 48.21%
Hospitalization
- +80... 4 no increase
- 70-79 yrs 10, 1 increase
- 60-69 yrs 17, 7 increase
- 50-59 yrs 10, no increase
- 40-49 yrs 4, 2 increase
- 30-39 yrs 4, no increase
Friday, March 20th, Day 15 in Colorado
This was the day we fully shut ourselves in. No need to go out even as it continued to snow and stay cold. Illinois announced that Saturday it will shelter in place causing my wife's father great emotional distress. We are supposed to receive our paycheck today but it seems there is a foul-up somewhere in the process as our credit union says it the money but the processing company is not working well. It will get worked out but why you all should have reserve cash on hand in case of an emergency. The count only gets worse, and won't get better until or if social distancing takes place. The graph below should be alarming to everyone in the U.S. trajectory is higher than Italy or China at this stage. I have broken out Colorado's reported statistics
- Colorado reported to 363, up 31%
- New Cases reported 86 up 41%
- El Paso County CO 27 up 80%
- CO Hospitalization 44 up 16%
- By Gender W: 52.61% M: 47.38%
- CO 101.2 Males to 100 Females
- By Age: Females 100.9 to 100 males
- 80+ 11 (3%) out of 2.5% of pop, 4 hos
- 70-79 37 (10.2%) out/5.36% of pop 9 hos
- 60-69 52 (14.3%) out/10.9% pop10 hos
- 27.54% out of 18.76% of pop
- 23 hosp 52.27% of 44
- Age: Females 100.2 to 100 males
- 50-59 64 (17.6%) out/13.66% pop 10 hos
- Age Males 100.2 to 100 Females
- 40-49 62 (17.1%) out/13.21% pop 2 hos
- 34.71% out of 26.87% of pop
- 12 hosp 27.27% hosp
- 101.5 Males to 100 Females
- 30-39 64 (17.6%) out/ 14.41% of pop 4 hos
- 20-29 53 (14.6%) out/ 14.76% of pop 0 hos
- 10-19 15 (4.13%) out/13..22% of pop 0 hos
- 0-9 3 (0.008%) out/12.95 of pop 0 hos
- 37.19% out of 55.34%
- 4 hosp 1.1% hosp
I broke out Colorado's reported statistics so that one can make a more informed decision in their daily lives. Reported cases in Colorado seem to be climbing just below the mean of 33% as reported in the bottom graphic, note the U.S is higher. New cases climbed above the mean yesterday and locally El Paso County spiked double of that. Hospitalizations grew by half the cases reported mean but understand hospitalizations often are two to three weeks from the onset of symptoms, so when Colorado reported two cases on March 5th and 15-20% often who are hospitalized it says that Colorado actually had ten to fifteen times, that meant it was 20 to 30 cases then. Even that seems inaccurate, more accurate at the start seems to be 100 times the 2 already prevalent in the communities. As more data comes in the time lag ratio will be more accurate. Another ratio is reporting cases that show symptoms are 363 which are tested confirmed which is ten days out. Back on March 10th, Colorado reported 24 cases, which if 15 times that number is 360! In El Paso County yesterday it reported 27, which is probably closer to the bottom of an estimated 400-500 right now. As defined above the older populations of the age above 50 to greater than 80 are hospitalized at a rate of 2/3's that of ages less than 49, but represent 57% of the population. Women have higher rates at about 5% this might be partially explained that in older populations there 1% more women than men but this seems to be an anomaly.
Sources and Reporting sites
Colorado Daily Data: https://ncov2019.live/data
U.S. and World Daily Data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Age Demographics: https://worldpopulationreview.com/blog/age-demographics-by-state/
Gender Demographics: https://www.statista.com/statistics/301946/us-population-males-per-100-females-by-state/
CO reporting: https://www.coloradopolitics.com/coronavirus/coronavirus-diary-confirmed-cases-in-state-in-eagle-county/article_349ef84a-69da-11ea-a13c-7f0ebfc0132c.html#utm_source=coloradopolitics.com&utm_campaign=%2Femail%2Fdaily-morning%2F%3F-dc%3D1584709208&utm_medium=email&utm_content=read%20more
I still kick myself that on February 29th I made four Frontier plane reservations (paid) over $1000 when seat assignments, luggage fee's and other items bundled in for an expected trip to Washington DC for an upcoming historic Supreme Court of the United States hearing regarding presidential elector voting. I kick myself because I was aware of the coronavirus and that the U.S. had 70 reported cases already and should have held off. We now are holding onto a 90-day voucher that seems to be worthless as this pandemic probably has a life of 18 to 24 months. That said it illustrates how this virus has punctured our self-important, pampered, affluent lives where personal pursuits were so important and yet now are a big "SO WHAT!"Colorado Daily Data: https://ncov2019.live/data
U.S. and World Daily Data: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Age Demographics: https://worldpopulationreview.com/blog/age-demographics-by-state/
Gender Demographics: https://www.statista.com/statistics/301946/us-population-males-per-100-females-by-state/
CO reporting: https://www.coloradopolitics.com/coronavirus/coronavirus-diary-confirmed-cases-in-state-in-eagle-county/article_349ef84a-69da-11ea-a13c-7f0ebfc0132c.html#utm_source=coloradopolitics.com&utm_campaign=%2Femail%2Fdaily-morning%2F%3F-dc%3D1584709208&utm_medium=email&utm_content=read%20more
March 19th
We still had to go out on this day as we went to Costco to get Yoshi's medicine and witnessed the line going around the front of the store. Sue had learned beforehand to tell the front end attendant that she was going to the pharmacy which allowed her to go to the front of the line. She somehow found herself in the paper aisle where she found toilet paper, paper towels, and napkins, imagine that, but one package per customer. Anna had decided to walk to Walgreens attempting to get her daily walk in before the snowstorm and miscalculated so we picked her up as 30 mph winds whipped snow squalls on the last official day of winter. It was also the day we completed our full inventory of food and other consumables. In doing so we reorganized our spare bedroom where we have storage shelves turning the room outside a twin bed and Bob's workstation into a walk-in pantry. I figure we could go 120 days comfortably and possibly stretch to 150 days if forced with food. A full deep freezer, fridge/freezer, and dry stuff in a kitchen pantry plus bedroom pantry appear to be strong---especially on two meals a day. The count goes on, Colorado lost four souls on March 19th with cases increasing to 277 and new cases doubling to 61. The national count seems to be exploding reaching 13,789 and new cases 4530 cases, at a rate of 60%.
March 18th
This was the day we had to bring our dog Yoshi to the veterinary cardiologist as he has congestive heart failure which is part of his breeds problem. They only allowed one human in with their dog and we were told that this was the last day for even that. That took most of the afternoon. Yoshi will live but over time he will pass from this. It was also the day we learned we will not be able to go back to school until April 20th as ordered by the Governor. We will need to fill his new prescription at Costco tomorrow as that is the best place to get pet medicine that also is human. The coronavirus count continued unabated, Colorado recorded its second death, coincidentally the bridge-playing partner of the first victim, a 60s-year-old male. Colorado reached 216 with 33 new cases, and nationally it reached 9259, with 2848 new confirmed cases, a growth rate of 63%. By the end of the day, California and New York announced shelter in place and only essential services and errands could be conducted.
March 17th St. Patrick's Day canceled
Nationwide except for a few places canceled St Paddy's Day drinking with spotty compliance. Anna had a doctor's appointment so she could get her insulin prescription renewed for a three month's supply, she now has about 120 day supply of life-saving insulin. Sue ordered by mail order her prescriptions for delivery next week. And I began an inventory of consumables. The other matter was working through Frontier Airlines which I got a cancelation and voucher for 90 days, ha! 90 days =, see if that gets extended to a year. The last thing was pop and other drinks. The count grew as expected, Colorado now was at 183 as it seems the rate was decreasing, but nationally the count was 6411 and rate of growth at 77%. The U.S rate was now shooting almost vertical.
March 16th
The first official day on leave I went out to Walmart to find Sue her preferred black tea (100 bags) as they discovered that somehow, someway what was placed in her shopping cart did not make it to the checkout. Sue said she was so happy that it was one of the last boxes when she placed it in the cart. I found that there were four boxes that morning and purchased two giving her 100 days. I also found her preferred sugar, (sugar in the raw). The girls went out looking for toilet paper and paper towels to no avail. Colorado's count grew by 29 to 160 where suddenly it was found that the ski resorts were a place of high contagious rate. The national numbers grew to 983 a continuous increase of 33.33%.
March 14 & March 15th
It was a weekend of long grueling efforts at overcrowded grocery stores and trips to a variety of stores. Sue's sister and brother in law had come down to the mountain vacation home up Ute Pass but chose not to invite us up as a precaution for both the freezing fog that straddled the pass and having close human contact. I made a trip to Pueblo for the Colorado libation that is now legal across 31 states for my migraine sleeping treatment. Getting cash out of ATMs that were not operating informed us that on Monday a trip to the credit union was in order to get cash for back up. By Sunday night the first death in Colorado occurred on Saturday, an 83-year-old woman who was a bridge player at the Colorado Springs Bridge Center. The daily rate grew 26 then 31 to 131 or 74% over the two days. The national number was now 3680 an increase over the two days 162% and the exponential rate was now fully engaged as the daily rate increasing at 37%.
March 13th
Friday the 13th had us come into a full staff meeting where it was announced that schools would close absolutely that evening and that everything taken off our desks and counters including cloth materials off the walls. I now wonder when I will be in that room, it could be not until the end of summer or even when the leaves turn color, ironically the trees are just beginning to bud. That day the governor said no gatherings of more than fifty, therefore, the state basketball championships were completely canceled. It was announced we would be paid for the week and future shutdowns. We came home and reviewed everything and Sue and Anna's strategies for the weekend to shore up our consumable items involving food, cleaning, beverages, paper, personal hygiene, and pharmaceuticals. That night we probably had our last Papa Murphy pizza carryout for awhile. The daily count in Colorado had grown to 75 and an increase of 63% while the national number had grown to 2247 daily increase of 39%. However, over the week the U.S. had seen over 2000 new cases while Colorado had 71 new cases.
March 12th
Thursday, March 12th social hints became obvious as Colorado High School Athletic Association announced that the spring season was canceled and that carried over to all sports and basketball, hockey, baseball and all seasons were canceled or postponed. I was the official scorer of the last high school game this season that afternoon as the visiting team out of Denver had already left before the announcement. That evening an email went out stating that the school district was going to close early for spring break the following day and instruction was made on how to prepare our rooms for facility disinfectant efforts. That night I had our son cancel our hotel reservations in Washington as I learned that no visitors or even respondents were allowed in the Supreme Court facility. He was saddened to have to cancel his Italy vacation to commence on March 30th, only because he learned he would have self-quarantine upon returning if he did go. Now that all looks stupid with how Italy being overwhelmed. Colorado reported 49 cases, growing at a daily rate of 77%, while the U.S. grew to 1697 an increase of 396 and an increase in the daily rate of 30%.
March 11th
The week followed the usual cycle in our home and school but by Wednesday, March 11th I canceled our hotel reservations our spring break trip to Taos New Mexico upsetting my wife Sue. I also learned that our upcoming "Moot" hearing for the upcoming Supreme Court hearing was canceled in Denver also learning that Supreme Court Justice Sotomayer had recused herself from our case the day before. This meant our attorney's had to change their plans and prepare for two separate presentations. On that day Colorado recorded nine new cases bringing the total to 33 while in the U.S. grew to 1301, the daily growth rate was back up to 88% nationally. This got our attention where Sue and Anna began to shop and start filling out of dry and canned food supplies. Fortunately, Sue had already had an unstructured supply going back over a year and precipitated by the memories of our own hard times of 2008-2009 where we often had to visit food pantries and social services. By the end of the week, the dining room was filled with a variety of foodstuffs, we had ordered dog and cat food online and also began making certain our pharmaceuticals were three months out.
March 9th
Reading over the weekend about the coronavirus (COVID-19) it was revealed that three demographic groups were at risk; by age, over 60 (later I learned it was actually over 64 years old), males and those who had underlying health condition like respiratory, cardiovascular, cancer, or kidney/liver disease so at school I instituted an immediate hand-washing policy for my classroom for all those who enter it. This included my administrator bosses, teachers, or staff members as well as students. At first, it became a meme or joke among students as they said they were protecting the old man but by the end of the week, it was no longer mocked, even by the most disobedient or defiant students. On that Monday, March 9th, U.S., there were four new cases reported in Colorado making a total of twelve in the U.S. it had grown to 704, a daily growth rate of 53 %! In retrospect that was actually a lull.
March 5th
The first two reported cases in our locale, Colorado, came about five days later on March 5th, in the U.S it was already 221. We were still going about our business in school, ironically holding parent-teacher conferences during teacher work-days without students where it stretched to the next day which was a half-day, we went spent our free time visiting a building materials company to look over composite decking planks with our contractor. That project among all other dreams soon thereafter on the planning table. On that day Colorado coronavirus cases grew to 8 where six more were reported. Over the weekend we ordered online vinyl gloves for each of us, a gallon of hand sanitizer as small stuff had already shown extreme price extremes, and reusable masks. The national daily count was now 63 or an increase of 85%.
